Lessons

1. Do you want practice expressing your uncertainty as a probability distribution?  Try building and completing your own subjective probability interval estimate histogram using this online tool.  The histogram breaks the range of possible outcomes into a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive bins.  Then you assign probabilities to each bin.  

2. Interested in playing with your own Quincunx?  There’s an app for that.  Set it up and watch the distribution build.  The Quincunx is a machine into which a ball drops from above, then bounces over a series of pegs to land in one of several bins at the bottom.  

3. Quentin Andre has built this useful tool for reporting probability distributions using Goldstein and Rothschild’s distribution builder.  

4. The confidence interval challenge invites people to show how sure they are by specifying confidence intervals around their guesses.  It is an easy demonstration to run in a class or any gathering.  It is a reliable demonstration of overprecision in judgment that provides a vivid example using people’s own judgments.