Lessons

1. Try building and completing your own subjective probability interval estimate histogram using this online tool.  

2. Interested in playing with your own Quincunx?  There’s an app for that.  Set it up and watch the distribution build.  

3. Quentin Andre has built this useful tool for reporting probability distributions using Goldstein and Rothschild’s distribution builder.  

4. The confidence interval challenge invites people to show how sure they are by specifying confidence intervals around their guesses.  It is an easy demonstration to run in a class or any gathering.  It is a reliable demonstration of overprecision in judgment that provides a vivid example using people’s own judgments.